I’ve been reading international newspapers and these papers have been predicting a recession since last year! The funny thing is, Governments and economist are now talking about restoring consumer confidence, but can they blame the consumer for the lack of confidence when the papers keep telling us, the worst is yet to come.
I’m sure many of us don’t really understand about the subprime mortgage crisis and how it caused all this mess. Luckily for us in Malaysia and HK, our exposure to subprime mortgage is minimal, because such ‘arrangement’ doesn’t yet exist. From what I’ve read and understood, the subprime mortgage crisis is generally due to 2 causes:
1) People who should not get loans to buy houses, were given such loans.
They were a credit risk, due to their low / unstable income-earning potential or lack of other forms of collateral. But it seems that a large portion of the American adult population falls into this category.
I also read that President Bush is responsible for this mess because during his tenure, he promoted housing for every American. Banks were encouraged to give out loans to such credit-risk customers, in return for their houses (as collateral) and a graduated interest-rate plan. Graduated interest-rate plans mean that banks entice you with a low entry interest-rate, which may be fixed for a few years. After the “honeymoon period”, the interest-rate will jump up and you’re basically “screwed”.
Alot of the people who bought houses, using such loans said that they did not know about these graduated interest-rate plans. As an observer, I think that these people only have themselves to blame. Remember the latin term “Caveat Emptor” - Let the Buyer beware. I don’t mean to be rude / crude, but we pay for what we get. Think of this – a person with an unstable income or in the low income bracket, buying a house which is normally beyond his/her means, but which was made affordable by the “low” interest-rate. Didn’t they stop to think – what’s the catch?
So when the high interest-rates kicked in, these people couldn’t afford the monthly payments and the bank had to foreclose and attempt to auction the house. The problem is there were so many of such foreclosures and no buyers. So banks now held houses which are not worth the loan given out and no cash inflow from loan repayments. Quite similar to the crisis in Malaysia in 1997, which gave birth to Danaharta and Danamodal. Such high risk loans were then packaged by some smart alec and sold to other financial institutions, so that everyone shared the risks.
2) People who took out a 2nd/3rd mortgage on the value of their houses
This is something I read yesterday in USA Today. They profiled several families who recently lost their homes to foreclosure. Their stories were so familiar - a few years ago during the property boom, the value of their homes appreciated sometimes double the purchase price. All of them took out a 2nd and sometimes, 3rd mortgage, maximising the increased property value and used the loan money to buy a car, go on vacation, buy a swimming pool etc.
When property prices started to drop and banks called, requiring the customers to pay-down their loan to the current property prices, many of them were caught without sufficient funds.
I couldn’t help but shake my head as I read and I don’t mean to be condescending when I say this, but perhaps what is lacking is planning and preparing for the (worst) future. Alot of us, never experienced the economic crisis of 1997 but I know that my dad was retrenched many times and money was tight. Luckily Mum’s job was more secure because she worked for the government. So in a sense, this is my first-hand experience during an economic crisis.
Of cause, there were some unfortunate people who lost their homes because they lost their jobs, largely due to the economic crisis. Those still in denial that it won’t affect them personally, please realise that this will affect all of us, the question is not if, but when. So save your money and don’t take on any loans for the time-being. I know the banks have been very enthusiatic with their personal loans etc. but don’t be tempted. Let’s ride out the “storm” and hopefully emerge without too much damage.
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